The Anchorage Daily News says Alaskans should defeat the oil tax ballot measure and support the e-harmony plan, with oil companies asking legislators to increase taxes by a small amount to benefit all.

There is zero chance the oil companies will take the Binkley family advice that "if Ballot Measure 1 is defeated, producers should come to the table and help hammer out a fair solution that doesn’t kneecap investment on the North Slope, but which also helps provide services essential to Alaskans.”

Call it a fair share or not, Ballot Measure No. 1 is the only tool at hand to begin dealing with Alaska's fiscal collapse. The Legislature and Gov. Mike Dunleavy have failed to act. Voters have a chance to give them some direct instructions with the oil tax measure.

Of course, the oil companies oppose it and are predicting the end of the world as they know it.

The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, unlike the Anchorage Daily News, has a sensible editorial on the ballot measure, identifying it as an essential element in a fiscal plan: “We support this citizens initiative in the hope that its passage will force the Legislature and governor to then revisit the newly approved oil tax law, possibly reducing the new rate, as part of a comprehensive fiscal plan that includes a statewide personal income or sales tax, continued — though not as drastic — budget reductions, and incentives to further develop the state’s natural resources. The Alaska Constitution allows for a successful initiative to be amended at any time and repealed after two years.”

The state needs a higher minimum oil tax, as it now collects almost nothing from ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil and Hilcorp in production taxes. The companies have forgotten to mention this to Alaskans, though they have spent $25 million hammering the doom and gloom message into the minds of every Alaskan.

The oil companies have never supported any tax increase, with one exception that I know of. That was the ill-fated gas line plan of former Gov. Frank Murkowski in 2006.

With extreme reluctance, BP, Exxon and ConocoPhillips agreed to higher taxes and a tax freeze 14 years ago.

But the admission that any tax increase was OK unleashed political momentum to push it higher. That the oil companies had abandoned their sacred tradition of opposing all tax increases made many Alaskans think that this admission meant the proposed tax was not high enough.

I wrote at the time, “The governor's bill and the unprecedented action by the companies to publicly say they could live with a tax increase seemed to unleash pent-up pressure in legislative circles to analyze whether Alaska was getting a fair deal from the industry.”

The fair share debate never ends.

I suspect the oil companies will never repeat that mistake of backing even the tiniest tax increase and that they won't endorse the Anchorage Daily News Kumbaya Plan. The oil companies have spent lavishly trying to kill the ballot measure, exaggerating the negative consequences, as they do with every proposed tax increase.

The smart thing to do is to approve Ballot Measure No, 1 and amend it later, if necessary, if the companies can make the case that it goes too far. Otherwise, it's easy for the oil companies to secretly get their legislative allies to kill any tax increase.

ConocoPhillips is already suggesting that any tax increase in Alaska means doomsday.

The main impact of Ballot Measure No. 1, at today’s prices, is to raise the minimum gross severance tax from 4 percent to 10 percent on the three largest oil fields, not on new fields. This is hardly the end-of-the-world scenario that the oil companies claim it is.

I do agree with the Daily News on one key point, however, which is that oil industry opposition to any tax increase as part of a fiscal plan may mean “they’ll have to beat back more punitive tax initiatives every two years until frustration bubbles over and one passes—at which point all of the time and money the companies spent stiff-arming any changes to oil taxes will be wasted.”

The oil company opposition to any tax increase means that the moment they suggest cuts to the Permanent Fund Dividend and an income tax as options they will be in more political trouble.

The oil companies, with their $25 million investment, are claiming that defeat of Ballot Measure No. 1 will “save jobs and the PFD.” If Ballot Measure No. 1 is defeated, don’t forget that promise.

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