By itself, the collapse of oil prices creates a difficult, but manageable disaster for Alaska.

But add to that the simultaneous collapse of tourism and fishing, the shutdown of thousands of businesses, the loss of tens of thousands of jobs, the financial strain on health care facilities, and the global financial meltdown, and it takes your breath away.

Whatever all this means, manageable it is not.

Alaska’s economy has been hit hard, though we have so far escaped the devastation of widespread illness and death. The danger has not passed, however, and we won’t know what the health and economic fallout will be for months. As soon as travel from Outside resumes in significant numbers, the risk of serious outbreaks will climb.

It’s a high-wire balancing act with no net. We are nowhere near the end.

There is a world of uncertainty with oil prices near $20 a barrel, the near elimination of cruise ship travel, the cancellation of most airline flights, chaos in the fishing industry and the global financial havoc that endangers the investments of the Alaska Permanent Fund.

Terry Gardiner, a former Alaska legislator and longtime business leader, has a good idea about what to do next.

He suggests that we look at oil, finance, tourism and fishing as four economic earthquakes and start a serious planning effort that taps the best minds in Alaska to decide where to go from here.

Unlike the destruction left by the 1964 disaster or the 2018 quake in Southcentral, the repair and rebuilding efforts necessary now are not so obvious as fixing crumpled roads or cracked foundations.

Earthquake recovery will require much more than a standard political response. It has to involve people and institutions from across Alaska in government, business, the University of Alaska, nonprofit organizations and civic groups.

Gov. Mike Dunleavy released what he called a “6 Point Plan,'“ while former Gov. Sean Parnell and former Sen. Mark Begich followed that with a “stabilization plan.”

The Dunleavy and Parnell/Begich proposals can be summarized as giving out more cash to Alaskans and Alaska businesses, while asking the feds for more cash. That is a start at crisis intervention.

I think everyone realizes we need to go far beyond these short-term plans. Recognize that because of our excessive dependence on oil, tourism, fishing and state spending, Alaska may be hit much harder than many other states.

The lack of broad-based taxes provides little room for a state government response, except by using more earnings of the Permanent Fund and borrowing. The Permanent Fund is the biggest source of revenue to support state and local services, however, and there is nothing to replace its earning power.

The immediate focus remains on health and reopening businesses and travel without igniting a new wave of sickness. While managing that delicate task will remain a big focus this summer and into the fall, we need to start now to work on solutions for the longer term.

Gardiner, who is one of the fathers of the Alaska Permanent Fund, has written to legislators and others to outline the basics of a planning structure to deal with the economic earthquakes.

The first need is for information and analysis.

 “Alaska needs a forum to build an understanding of the four economic earthquakes that have hit the state’s economy, businesses, employees, and revenues.  Everyone needs to understand the problem.  Only then, with a common understanding, can Alaskans build a consensus on a path forward,” Gardiner said.

He suggests the following:

·       Gather leaders in each of the four sectors together for discussions and presentations on the problems and challenges facing their sector, with a series of forums by topic.  Dig into the other parts of Alaska’s economy suffering impacts – such as education, healthcare and nonprofits.

·      Create a concerted public education program to share this information to all Alaskans.

·       Pull together a complete picture of the impact to Alaska businesses, employees, local governments, the Permanent Fund, and the state government.

·      The economic modeling needs to take into account the range of restrictive measures that may be necessary until a vaccine is widely available in 18 months.

“As the timeline of restarting Alaska’s economy becomes apparent, a plan to rebuild the economic pillars that support Alaska’s economy will need to be designed.  This foundation of information, planning, and scenarios will help Alaskans develop a consensus on the way forward,” he said.

This is a lot of work, but the four economic earthquakes have been so destructive that anything less will fail. The governor and Legislature can set up a structure that would allow Alaskans to prepare for the most difficult rebuilding challenge in Alaska’s history.