“In a year that has been so improbable, the impossible has happened.”

When he said that, Vin Scully was referring to the 1988 World Series home run by Kirk Gibson, but his memorable line fits the improbable and impossible saga of Mary Peltola’s rise to Congress.

Peltola has a substantial lead going into the ranked choice voting count Wednesday. It will take a miracle for Sarah Palin to beat her.

Peltola’s achievement is even more unlikely than Don Young’s 1972-73 transformation from sacrificial loser against Rep. Nick Begich to Congressman for the Rest of His Life. All it took for Young to become the Congressman for All Alaska was to have his name on the ballot at the right time after Begich died.

All it took for Peltola to become the Congresswoman for All Alaska was an improbable series of events that no one saw coming a year ago when Nick Begich the Third, exactly half of Don Young’s age, crowned himself “A new Generation of Conservative Leadership We Can Trust.”

“This race is not about Don Young,” Begich said, starting a race that was all about Don Young,

Young could have hand picked his replacement at almost any time had he stepped aside 10, 20 or 30 years ago, as many in the Republican Party quietly or secretly prayed he would do. That he failed to do so meant he would never be a king-maker, especially under the new ranked choice voting system that has eroded the power of the Republican Party to control the process.

The 48-candidate free-for-all followed, accurately summed up by this New York Times June 1 headline: “In Alaska, the Race to Succeed Don Young is Raucous and Crowded: Four dozen candidates, including Sarah Palin and Santa Claus, are facing a complex election schedule to follow the man who represented Alaska for 49 years.”

The Times coverage mentioned Peltola, who said it was time to send a Native Alaskan to D.C. “Ms. Peltola is among the candidates who have gone to great lengths to highlight a personal connection or appreciation for Mr. Young.”

Peltola’s decade in the Alaska Legislature ended in 2009 and she has had a wide variety of career and life experiences. She is articulate, smart and works well with others. But no one was saying in May, June or July that she was the one to beat.

Peltola finished fourth in the special June primary, collecting 16,000 votes, about 10 percent of the total. Palin was first with 27 percent, followed by Begich with 19 percent and Al Gross with 13 percent.

It wasn’t obvious until later, but Peltola gained an edge because Gross dropped out of the race in late June, too late for fifth-place finisher Tara Sweeney to replace the Bear Doctor on the list of the top four for the August special general election to fill the House seat until January.

What appeared obvious at the time to all of the so-called experts, was that the contest was between Palin and Begich. The former governor and Begich the Third also deceived themselves into thinking that way. They spent months sniping at each other.

Palin did little campaigning, preferring to cater to Outside right-wing interviewers and recycle her greatest hits of 2008—”Drill baby, Drill.” She called him “Negative Nick,” the prime example of what was wrong with politics.

There is some political value to Palin’s name recognition, but there is a large segment of the Alaska voting population who haven’t forgiven her for quitting the governor’s job in 2009 and claiming she did it for the state, not herself.

The Republican Party establishment, such as it is, backed Begich and ridiculed Palin. But Palin has had more support all along than Begich. Each one wanted the other to pull out. But they appealed to different segments of society.

Begich said, correctly, that Palin was more interested in being a celebrity than in doing any real work. She was the woman in the pink bear costume on TV, not someone who wanted to be stuck in Wasilla. “I’m voting for smart, nor Sarah,” Begich had someone say about him.

Palin said, incorrectly, that Begich was a plant by the Democratic Party to neutralize her. Palin said, correctly, that she and Peltola were friends and that Peltola is a nice person.

Begich and Palin hurt each other, benefiting Peltola simply because she was not part of their pettiness.

In the August special election, Peltola collected 70,000 votes, beating Palin, Begich and 19 other candidates to become the temporary Congresswoman for All Alaska, She did a masterful job in the months that followed, blending the roles of candidate and Congresswoman in a way that elevated her to the favorite.

I wrote here Aug. 16, that whoever won the election to be a temporary member of Congress would not have a big advantage in seeking the two-year term. I was wrong about that, fully expecting either Palin or Begich to win the temporary title.

Peltola’s win, however, gave her instant credibility and access to all the money she needed to run a winning campaign—suddenly the conventional wisdom that a Democrat could not win in Alaska was proven wrong.

I wrote a better column on August 31, after the vote, when it is always easier to say what happened.

On her 49th birthday, Peltola won the temporary seat through ranked choice voting. Peltola won because sizable numbers of Begich voters picked her second or made no second-choice vote, which helped Peltola keep a winning edge over Palin. Something similar is likely Wednesday. The big difference now is that Peltola has a much bigger lead in first-place votes.

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