Sen. Mike Shower, pretending to know that oil prices will stay in the $120-a-barrel range, tried to defend the reckless budget that calls for $3.6 billion in dividends, about $5,600 per person,

”I will tell you as I mentioned before, just from Morgan Stanley today, or the article was just sent to me, that they’re predicting $120 a barrel of oil. ANS crude today was at $116 a barrel and predicting it to be that for some time as have been mentioned in a report previously, based on world events not getting better, getting worse. While that’s bad for the world, it’s good for prices here for oil,” Shower said Tuesday.

Shower should have checked on the price of Alaska North Slope crude before speaking with conviction about this topic.

The drop in oil prices since last week shows how foolish it is for senators to build a swollen budget based on rosy assumptions about oil prices and counting on spending hundreds of millions from savings if oil prices falter.

Alaska oil wasn’t selling for $116 Tuesday when the Senate approved its version of the budget 15-5.

$116 was last week. The price dropped to $110 Monday and fell $3 more on Tuesday. Shower acts as if the current environment is stable. It’s not. It’s volatile. Caution is required, not the recklessness he and other so-called conservatives favor.

As one of the chief architects of the $3.6 billion dividend included in the Senate budget, Shower has no idea what will happen to oil prices in the next hour, let alone the next year.

Right-wing Republicans in the Senate, assisted by Senate Democrats Scott Kawasaki, Bill Wielechowski and Donny Olson, are betting on high oil prices to pay inflated dividends, provide state services and build projects in the next fiscal year.

It’s a reckless move, one that should be reversed by the budget conference committee.

Sitka Sen. Bert Stedman said the finance committee wanted to use $85 per barrel as the break-even budget point, not wanting to have to depend on oil staying at more than $100 per barrel.

The committee had proposed using any money from higher oil prices to forward fund education for $1.2 billion and to save money from price spikes over $100 by putting it in the Permanent Fund.

The Senate rejected forward funding for education, with the right-wing Republicans and three Democrats pushing the $3.6 billion dividend of nearly $5,600 per person. The dividend would use the entire annual payout of the Permanent Fund, along with $300 million from other funds.

Sen. Natasha von Imhof said about $1 billion of the budget is unfunded, which is contrary to the Constitution. The budget is not balanced or sustainable.

“No one can predict the price of oil or the market for the next 12 months. And to create a budget that depends on $100 oil per barrel, in my opinion, is reckless,” she said.

It will be up to the conference committee on the budget, with members from the House and Senate, to create a sensible budget plan, one that does not depend on oil price guesses and continuation of the disruption created by the war in Ukraine.

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