Just in time for his reelection campaign, Gov. Mike Dunleavy has thrown together an agricultural “plan” for Nenana that would be more accurately described as an invitation for bankruptcy for those who buy undeveloped state land at 5 percent down and dream of an agrarian future.

The Dunleavy “plan” is founded on the simplistic notion that we need to do something right now about “food security,” the catchphrase of the day. If you want the cartoon version of agricultural development in Alaska, Dunleavy’s trying to sell it.

“Greetings fellow Alaskans, Americans, & farmers of the world,” the Dunleavy administration says. “Alaska is a land of abundant natural resources and with those resources, a land with great opportunities.”

In its greetings to “farmers of the world,” the administration says the project “will be planned using science,” but there is no reason to believe that is the case.

The sales brochure released by the state does not constitute an agricultural plan or suggest that anything is feasible. It merely documents a process to unload 27 parcels of state land on the highest bidders, which is the easiest thing in the world. This sale of about 2,000 acres is supposed to be the first of many over the next 30 years, totaling 100,000 acres.

Promoting agriculture in Alaska is a good idea. Promoting food security is a good idea. A coherent plan that shows what level of investment would make this work is a good idea. Learning the lessons from past failures of projects to promote Alaska agriculture is a good idea. This slapdash sale, rushed to meet the demands of the Dunleavy campaign, is not a good idea.

The state website in which Dunleavy addresses “farmers of the world,” says the “global design/phase plan” will not be ready until September, so the state is seeking bids before the bidders know the “global design.”

The dream of building a farm industry in Nenana has been around for decades, more than enough time to understand the enormous challenges, the need for infrastructure and the gap between the myth promoted by Dunleavy and the difficult reality.

The cover of the brochure features an expensive tractor, which would cost more than the land, tilling a field in the imaginary future of the Nenana project.

Putting undeveloped land out for auction at low prices is not going to do a thing for food security because Dunleavy and Co. have failed to look at the complex factors that will cripple those who don’t have enormous sums they are willing to spend.

The Nenana plan is not about growing or creating a new industry in Nenana—it’s about trying to create some more votes for Dunleavy with a flimflam operation that makes the Valdez grain terminal look like a sound investment.

The minimum bids on the 27 parcels are supposedly set at the appraised value of the properties, many of which are in the range of $170 to $500 an acre.

Under “survey and appraisals” for each parcel, the state lists the survey, but no appraisal. The state document says there are no utilities to the properties.

The appraisal review is available online, but I can’t find the appraisal under review. The reviewer of the appraisals did not inspect the properties or comparable sales, if there were any. This is the final plat.

There are brushed right-of-ways to the parcels in some cases and road access to some others. For instance, a 32-acre parcel on “Moe’s Road” has a minimum bid of $15,500.

The buyers have to promise to clear at least 25 percent of land within 5 years and keep it in “farmable” condition, meaning free of trees. The land would be sold with covenants requiring that it be for agricultural purposes and that big parcels can be subdivided into no more than four 40-acre parcels.

A 183-acre parcel comes with a minimum bid of $39,400, which works out to $215 per acre. The smallest parcels are 21 acres, with a minimum bid of $12,300.

The state will provide financing at 3 percent plus prime. Anyone who needs state financing to make a go of this is not going to be doing much for “food security” in Alaska.

It will take millions in private investment with uncertain prospects for profit. Someone could buy property, however, and clear 25 percent and not do any farming as the state will not require anyone to do farming.

“Approximately 77% of the soils in the project area are categorized as non-irrigated capability class IV. The soil is considered frost free for 80-120 days. Non-irrigated capability class IV soils are considered appropriate for agricultural development. However, the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) defines these soils as having severe limitations that reduce the choice of plants or that require very careful management, or both,” the fine print on the state sales plan says.

“A significant factor in the soil classification for agriculture development is the climate. Understanding that climate, in conjunction with plant choice and soil class, will determine success in agriculture crop production. NRCS will be performing a more detailed soil report for the project area during 2021. The subsequent soil report will provide valuable information in the agriculture capability and design of offered parcels.”

“Prospective buyers should, however, be aware that while these parcels do have soils suitable for growing crops, the elevation, aspect, presence or permafrost and other physical conditions may limit crop selection and/or require special management techniques in developing the agricultural potential. Parcels within this subdivision may contain wetlands and may require a permit from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers prior to the placement of fill materials into these areas.”

This slide from a presentation last November, which attempts to show the endless possibilities, actually reflects the failure to focus.

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Correction: An earlier version of this blog post said that the state website quoted Dunleavy as greeting “farmers of the world.” The greeting is from the Dunleavy administration, not the governor himself.