Alaska's experiment with reopening during pandemic could be prudent or catastrophic

We won’t know for weeks or months if the action by Gov. Mike Dunleavy to start reopening Alaska will prove to be a prudent decision or a public health catastrophe.

Alaska has so far been spared from the worst of the pandemic. Health care facilities have not become overwhelmed and the number of people stricken with serious illness has been low. Some people have concluded from this that the danger is past.

There is no doubt that the restrictions on movement in Alaska have reduced the spread of the disease. What will happen next is not clear.

The big factors that create uncertainty are all linked to travel and increased contact among people that will follow as a matter of course. That will not change unless or until testing becomes much more readily available.

The construction season, the fishing season, and whatever is left of the tourist season could all mean more widespread transmission of the virus. The arrival and passage of seasonal workers—many of whom will be desperate for work—and the return of traveling Alaskans from Outside carries significant risk.

People who have no symptoms or those who have slight symptoms can spread the disease without knowing it. And there can be a two-week lag between exposure and the onset of symptoms.

Because of that two-week delay, no one should take comfort in the repeated promises by Dunleavy to take action immediately if hospital admissions and COVID-19 tests show a big spike in the number of cases. We are hoping that the increase in cases will be manageable at hospitals and we are steering by the rear-view mirror.

In Anchorage, a few hundred drivers congregated last week to honk horns, wave American flags in a procession led by a garbage truck, protesting what they complain are unjust restrictions on their civil liberties.

The protesters don’t see people suffering from COVID-19 and misinterpret the success of the “social distancing” requirements, believing that it has proven that the government and health care leaders overreacted to deprive them of a haircut or the freedom to visit a strip mall.

It’s not a big leap from, “The number of cases has been low” to “We’re safe here because Alaska is remote” and since there is no problem right now, let’s open up the state. It’s an illusion of safety, based on magical thinking. It shows a level of complacency that is alarming.

It puts old people and those who have underlying illnesses at greater risk.

Dunleavy and Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz have been stampeded into the loosening of restrictions, based on such claims as those assembled by amateur epidemiologist Rick Mystrom.

“Since most of the print and television stories on the virus originate from New York, we get stories that are heavily influenced by what’s happening in the New York City metropolitan area,” Mystrom wrote in a column in which he predicted that we will look back on this as “the pandemic that wasn’t.”

There is a chance that he is right about Alaska. I wouldn’t bet my life on it. More than 55,000 people have already died from COVID-19 in the U.S., out of more than 200,000 worldwide, so it would take the Trump fantasy cure to keep Alaska safe: “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

We have embarked on a risky political experiment.

I know that the impact on businesses has been devastating. And the drive to reopen the state is pushed in part by those with real fears that the shutdown is killing businesses and jobs. I have a fear that the reopening of the state and the resumption of air travel will lead to more people being killed and fighting for their lives.

The governor should be doing more right now to protect vulnerable populations.

“The politicos may want to consider taking their public health charge seriously and providing real professional support to businesses and organizations and the at-risk public, not just guidelines and admonishments that ‘older people and those with existing medical conditions should take extra precautions’ so we can say we're reopening,” is how one Anchorage leader put it to me.

All old people and those with serious underlying health conditions that make them prime targets for COVID-19 should be able to get N95 masks, as well as people working in grocery stores and the other businesses that are to reopen. The cloth masks have a purpose, but Dunleavy needs to make it a priority to get the better ones.

It’s fine for him to speak in general terms about how reopening the economy may lead to more deaths, but some risks are worth taking, etc., but once specific names of victims are attached to those vague pronouncements the whole experiment will take on a more serious complexion.

Dunleavy needs to give more credence to the detailed steps outlined by the National Governor’s Association to get resources and safeguards in place as Alaska pursues this untested public health experiment.

“Opening prematurely—or opening without the tools in place to rapidly identify and stop the spread of the virus— could send states back into crisis mode, push health systems past capacity, and force states back into strict social distancing measures. This scenario would repeat the negative economic consequences of pandemic response and reduce public confidence, further deepening a recession and protracting economic recovery,” the group said.

“There is substantial consensus among national experts that significant preparation will be required by state and national leaders to scale up the required public health infrastructure to limit outbreaks. States will also need to develop plans for a careful, staged reopening that protects the public’s health while laying a strong foundation for long-term economic recovery.”

The National Governor’s Association released this report April 21.