Dunleavy announces gas pipeline is 'closer than ever,' as so many have announced before
Gov. Mike Dunleavy says he wants to see a $5.9 billion gas pipeline built to supply Fairbanks with natural gas from Point Thomson.
“This pipeline could very well be the reality that we’ve all been waiting for,” he said in a press release posted by the Anchorage Daily News and the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner.
We all need a dose of reality.
It’s too soon to apply to work at the drug factories or the fertilizer plants or the mineral processing plants that Dunleavy sees in our future. Unless or until the governor provides specifics of what private entities are willing to invest billions, despite uncertain prospects and profits, this belongs in the “wing and a prayer” catalog of Alaska ideas. Right now it’s a press release pipeline, which exists only in the world of imagination.
The money is supposed to come from unnamed private sources and the federal government, said Dunleavy, the same guy who claims the Biden administration has declared war on Alaska and wants to destroy the state.
I don’t see the federal government investing hundreds of millions or billions in this project, not when there is a big push for investing Outside in renewables.
The Alaska Gasline Development Corp. has a meeting scheduled for Thursday at 9 a.m., but it has released no documents, no financial information, no timetable for permits, no list of private partners, no economic analysis and no agenda for the public to consider.
If Dunleavy is serious, he should ask the Legislature to invest billions from the Alaska Permanent Fund, as that is the only sure-fire financing option the state can count on. But Dunleavy didn’t mention a state subsidy. Or any state investment at all.
But in his press release, he used the time-tested magic words.
“Today, I’m happy to report that we are closer than ever to bringing this concept to fruition with a gas line between Point Thomson and Fairbanks,” Dunleavy said.
Closer than ever.
You may have heard that before.
Nov. 20, 2018: Alaska Journal of Commerce: “And while he (Gov. Bill Walker) won't be in office to shepherd it across the finish line, during his four years as governor Walker has helped Alaska get closer than ever before to finally building "the gasline."
April 17, 2018: E&E News: “Now Alaska is closer than ever to bringing the state’s gas reserves to market.”
Dec. 30, 2017: Juneau Empire: “Alaskans have been waiting for a trans-Alaska natural gas pipeline for 40 years, and when Gov. Bill Walker signed an agreement in a gala Chinese ceremony, it appeared the dream was closer than ever.”
March 3, 2015: KTUU: “. . . Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Mike Navarre said of all the attempts at an LNG project, this one is closer than ever to development. ‘I want to be cautiously optimistic at this stage,’ the mayor said.”
Oct. 29, 2014: Alaska Journal of Commerce editorial: “When it comes to natural gas, Parnell's pipeline has brought the state closer than ever to construction of a trans-Alaska natural gas pipeline.”
Aug. 16, 2014: Rep. Lance Pruitt: “Are you all in for Alaska’s future? Are you willing to let go of this dream that any short-term gains will stay permanent and instead make way for investment into our future? That $60 billion gas line with more job opportunities is closer than ever before but it does not happen if we go back to ACES.”
April 27, 2014: Gov. Sean Parnell: "Alaska's future is bright, and with the passage of SB 138, we are closer than ever to getting Alaska's gas to Alaskans. We have made historic progress on a gas line, and our way forward will continue on Alaska's terms and in Alaskans' interests. When communities across the state are able to heat their homes with North Slope gas, we'll look back at this juncture and be able to say: In 2014, the Alaska LNG Project was launched.”
March 23, 2013: Peninsula Clarion: “Two lawmakers from the Kenai Peninsula contend the Alaska State Legislature is closer than ever to making historic decisions on two hot button issues — a rework of the state’s oil tax system and building a gas pipeline from the North Slope.
“I think we are closer than we were in the past,” Rep. Kurt Olson, R-Soldotna, said. “. . . I think we’ve got a real shot at it. I think people are tired of us not doing anything.”
Sept. 24, 2012: AP: “State officials have said Alaska is closer than ever to its dream of a major gas pipeline, but significant challenges remain.”
May 14, 2012: Mat-Su Frontiersman letter: “In an Anchorage Daily News op-ed piece published May 11, 2012, Gov. Sean Parnell extols that his administration was closer than ever to a large diameter natural gas pipeline being built, because of the settlement with Exxon over the Point Thompson development. One has to wonder just what this guy is on in terms of meds? He must be on the same psychotropic, hallucinogenic medications that the Legislature is on.”
Jan. 25, 2012: Juneau Empire: “‘I truly believe in my heart we are closer than ever to seeing an Alaskan natural gas pipeline on the verge, on the cusp, of being constructed, a pipeline that will actually bring Alaskans’ gas to Alaskans,’ Rep. Mike Hawker said.”
Jan. 22, 2012: Reps. MIke Chennault, Mike Hawker: “We are closer than ever to realizing Alaska's dream of gas and AGDC has the momentum to keep advancing toward that goal.”
Nov. 6, 2011: AP: Rep. Mike Chenault, R-Nikiski, “said he believes the state is ‘closer than ever’ to realizing its long-held dream of a gas pipeline and no other pending proposal has the momentum that the in-state line has.”
July 3, 2011: AP: “Alaskans have long dreamed of a major gas pipeline as a way to help shore up revenues from declining oil production, create jobs and provide a more reliable source of energy. Supporters of AGIA say Alaska is closer than ever to realizing that dream and need to stay the course.”
Jan. 23, 2011: AP: Gov. Sean “Parnell remains committed to the process, moving ahead under terms of the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act championed by his predecessor, Sarah Palin. He said the state is closer than ever to realizing a line—a position some House Democrats share— and he has urged lawmakers to be patient.”
Feb. 26, 2010: Alaska Dispatch: ”Watchers say only one project will ever be built, and that a successful pipeline is going to need shipper support from the North Slope's three major producers -- Exxon, BP and ConocoPhillips. Gov. Sean Parnell's administration points to the two "competing" projects as evidence that AGIA is working by bringing Alaska closer than ever to an actual project.”
Jan. 19, 2010: Rep. Chris Tuck: “A natural gas pipeline may now be closer than ever before. That's why there's no time to waste. Many of our young people would love to enjoy the opportunity their parents had when they built the oil pipeline. Now is the time to offer those strong, young hands the training they need to build our next great project, and to build a brighter future for them in the process. If this means fewer outsiders commuting to lucrative Slope jobs from the Lower 48, then so be it.”
July 30, 2009: Alaska Journal of Commerce: “When it comes to natural gas, Parnell's pipeline has brought the state closer than ever to construction of a trans-Alaska natural gas pipeline.”
July 22, 2008: Fairbanks News-Miner: “Supporters of the plan argued that moving ahead with TransCanada would bring the state closer than ever to getting a gas line and ensure that the pipeline was built on Alaska's terms. Opponents argued that government intervention would result in disaster.”
Feb. 13, 2008: KTVA: “One of the Big Three oil companies has broken ranks. ExxonMobil has brokered a deal with a company, called Fairbanks Natural Gas, that would bring 10 billion cubic feet of liquefied North Slope natural gas, or LNG, to the Fairbanks market by truck. This project paves the way for bigger things than just cheaper energy for Fairbanks; it could mean the much-debated natural gas pipeline is closer than ever.”
July 14, 2006: Sen. John Cowdery, Voice of the Times: “For 30 years oil revenues have enriched the lives of all Alaskans. Today we are closer than ever to a new era of financial stability by commercializing our vast reserves of natural gas.”
July 14, 2006: Anchorage Daily News: “Murkowski aggressively defended his record, saying his administration has overseen a growing economy and put the state closer than ever to a gas line project.”
Jun 28, 2006: Fairbanks News-Miner: Former Sen. Mike Miller “credited Murkowski with breathing life back into the mining industry and bringing the state closer than ever before to having a natural gas pipeline.”
May 21, 2006, Anchorage Daily News editorial: “And the governor is applying the same strong-willed determination in pushing for public acceptance and legislative approval of his draft contract with North Slope producers for a possible natural gas pipeline. There's a long way to go, however, before Alaskans can make an informed opinion about the complex deal. But what a dream to have. Meanwhile, higher market prices for natural gas have helped bring us closer than ever to seeing that gas line dream come true.
June 17, 2005: Fairbanks Daily News-Miner: “A producer-owned natural gas pipeline is as close to happening as it’s ever been, but there is still a long way to go, said Joe Marushack, the vice president of Alaska North Slope Development for ConocoPhillips Alaska.”
Feb. 17, 2005: Homer News: “Alaskans have longed for a gas pipeline for the past 50 years, and today such a project may be closer than ever to becoming a reality. There are several proposals for building a pipeline that would carry gas to the Lower 48 and deliver some of it to gas-hungry markets here in Alaska.”
Nov. 3, 2002: Frank Murkowski campaign ad: “A North Slope gas pipeline is closer than ever before.”
Nov. 17, 2000: Gov. Tony Knowles: “It is my belief that an Alaska Highway pipeline will be the beginning of a new economy for our state for the next 50 years and longer.”
There are many more.
On Feb. 28, 1999, Fairbanks Daily News-Miner columnist Fred Pratt provided what has turned out so far to be the most accurate formula to predict if a pipeline would be built. This was more than two decades after the first “closer than ever” announcement.
A Pratt Pipeline Prediction required a 10-mile road trip on the Steese Highway north of Fairbanks to the spot where the trans-Alaska oil pipeline passes.
“Drive out toward Fox, pull off the road where the pipeline crosses and count the number of pipelines you see. If you see two, then I’m wrong and you probably shouldn’t be driving. If you see only one then I’m right and the pipeline sponsors have been consistently wrong in what they’ve told you for more than 20 years,” he wrote.
The PPP rule has worked every time so far.
With nothing built yet, the gas line must be closer than ever before.
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