With 50 candidates in the running, it will be a rumble to replace Don Young

In Alaska, the race to replace Rep. Don Young is a bit like the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, unpredictable but not nearly as neat or orderly.

Two weeks ago no one saw a vacancy in the Alaska U.S. House seat, just as no one saw St. Peter’s beating Kentucky in the first round.

Since nature abhors a vacuum, we now have 50 candidates running for Alaska’s only seat in the U.S. House.

The field of 51 enter the political tournament with the first dream of making it to the Final Four.

In the vote-by-mail primary election, the top four candidates will qualify for the special general election in August, where ranked-choice voting will be used for the first time in Alaska. This election is only to fill out the remainder of Young’s last term.

Dozens of the candidates are not serious and don’t stand a chance. But then again, St. Peter’s was a 15th seed and no one expected it to come within a single game of reaching the Final Four.

One House primary candidate dropped out Friday night. More than a few of the others will drop out or do no campaigning, but every one that remains on the mail-in ballot will add uncertainty to the selection of the top four. There will be pressure this weekend to get some of the candidates to drop out to try to consolidate support behind some other contestant. The deadline to drop out is Monday at noon.

I’ve never seen a political contest with as many uncertainties as the rumble to replace Young. Maybe 12 candidates are serious contenders.

On that list I would put these names: Sarah Palin, Josh Revak, Adam Wool, Nick Begich, Christoper Constant, Andrew Halcro, Emil Notti, Tara Sweeney, Al Gross, Mary Sattler Peltola, John Coghill, Jeff Lowenfels.

The overlapping constituencies of the leading candidates will slice the pie in dozens of ways, making it hard to see right now exactly how the four primary winners will emerge from the pack.

Halcro, Notti and Santa Calus, perhaps among others, have an edge and a good angle in saying that they are only running to fill out the term and have no plans to enter the regular primary election in August. The candidates who do not pledge to limit themselves that way will use the temporary office as a campaign launch pad for the regular general election in the fall.

With the exception of Santa Claus, former Gov. Sarah Palin is at the top of the heap for name recognition. But that’s not the same as getting Alaskans to vote for you, especially among the tens of thousands who remember that she quit her last political job and have long since grown tired of her act.

Palin’s name recognition should help her reach the top four in the primary, but by no means does she have an inside track for the special general election in August. Her opening campaign pitch shows that she is mainly running for attention Outside, which is what she has been doing since the 2008 campaign for vice president. Palin said she is “offering myself up in the name of service to the state.”

“As I’ve watched the far left destroy the country, I knew I had to step up and join the fight,” she said in her press release.

“I’m in this race to win it and join the fight for freedom alongside other patriots willing to sacrifice all to save our country,” Palin’s press release said. Her announcement, as well as all of her media appearances over many years, have been aimed at right-wing audiences Outside.

Revak, a state senator who is being put forward by former Young campaign types like Art Hackney, is also running against socialism, the “radical left,” and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, all of the usual suspects.

“Alaska deserves better than Nancy Pelosi and the out of touch elites controlling our way of life,” Revak said in his first appeal for campaign donations Friday. “America can’t afford even a month more of the Pelosi-Biden socialist agenda, let alone 2 YEARS!”

Palin, Revak, Coghill and Begich are all aiming to attract the right-wing base. There will be pressure on Coghill to drop out. Revak and Begich are largely unknown outside Anchorage, while Coghill is little known outside Fairbanks.

Then again, Palin quit the governor’s job in the middle of her term and presided over a sideshow.

For the full list, go to the state Division of Elections site.

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