Peltola has the lead, Palin has an edge, Begich is the loser

We are still awaiting the final results, but former State Rep. Mary Peltola is the big winner in the race to temporarily replace Rep. Don Young, Nick Begich is the biggest loser and Sarah Palin could still capture the four-month job.

Peltola received the most first-place votes, giving her credibility and statewide recognition she lacked in the spring and early summer.

Even if Palin wins on second-choice votes when this wraps up Wednesday, Peltola has already done the most to build political momentum.

Palin will have a hard time celebrating what Begich called her desire for a “coronation” if it is made possible by what she claims is a “newfangled messed-up leftist-supported Ranked Choice Voting system” that was “pimped” by Murkowski backers.

I think most of what I wrote here on the night of the election nearly two weeks ago is correct, with the exception of my prediction that Tara Sweeney would be a solid contender. Sweeney dropped out, which means a Libertarian from Fairbanks will be the fourth candidate on the general election ballot for the full two-year term that starts in January.

It’s going to be a three-way race, but Peltola, Palin and Begich won’t say bad things about Chris Bye because they’ll want to appeal to his voters as second-place options.

Begich will tone down his attacks on Palin, but he can’t erase the record any more than Palin can.

“Team Nick” said Palin “chose to chase fame rather than serve Alaska” and that Palin abdicated her responsibility as governor. All true.

“I’m voting for smart, not Sarah,” Begich had a supporter say about him in one campaign ad.

Palin has publicized attacks on Begich, such as this one: “Begich attacks only Palin but never the commie swamp creatures like his uncle and friends.”

Begich and Palin did not attack Peltola, allowing the Republican Party to do it for them with one nastygram after another, putting her picture next to that of the president.

For now, let’s look at the temporary election situation and the latest counts.

Begich the third finished third, but voters who made Begich their first choice will decide whether Peltola or Palin will be the temporary representative.

Peltola goes into the second round with a lead of 16,347 votes. There is no doubt her lead will diminish during the second round. It’s not clear to me, however, that it will disappear and here’s why.

For Palin to win, she needs a net gain of 16,348 votes. She has to make up that ground from the 52,320 voters who made Begich their first choice.

But some of the 52,320 would never vote for Palin because they remember she quit her job as governor and believe she has embarrassed Alaska.

Some of the 52,320 would never vote for Peltola because she is a Democrat and because they had never heard of her. Some of the 52,320 would vote for Peltola because she is not Palin and was the only other option.

Some of the 52,320 put Begich’s name down three times, but only one counted. Some of the 52,320 simply refused to vote for more than one person on principle.

We don’t know how many of the 52,350 Begich voters made no second choice.

Begich attacked the polarizing Palin throughout the campaign as an entertainer and his half-hearted statements asking his backers to rank Palin second appeared to be made under duress.

Let’s assume that 12,320 Begich voters made no second choice. That would mean 40,000 ballots were marked for Palin or Peltola as as second choice. This is a guess.

(The actual number of voters who made no second choice could be higher or lower. A higher number of ballots with no second choice helps Peltola and hurts Palin. A lower number of ballots with no second choice hurts Peltola and helps Palin.)

If we take my guess as accurate, Palin would need about 28,000 of those 40,000 votes to pass Peltola. Peltola would need about 12,000 of the 40,000 to win the seat. Either result seems possible.

I don’t know what was in the minds of those 52,320 voters who made Begich their first choice, but this should be close.

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