While Dunleavy mentioned $30 billion in carbon revenue, fiscal notes from his staff say revenue is uncertain and impossible to predict over next five years
Gov. Mike Dunleavy introduced his carbon management bills to the Legislature, but the fiscal notes attached to his bills do not use the word “billion” or even “million” about future revenues. They contain no numbers at all for the next five years.
“Revenues are not specifically estimated because of the market and timeline uncertainty for carbon offset projects,'“ the fiscal notes say.
They say it is possible that some money, the amount unknown, could be collected starting in 2025, 2026 or 2027. Dunleavy’s term ends in 2026.
It is also possible that state corporate income taxes could decrease somewhat because of the so-called 45Q credit program that will reduce federal taxes.
The revenue department says it cannot say within an acceptable margin of error what the revenue potential will be at this stage.
On Monday, Dunleavy told Alaskans in his State of the State speech that “experts” claim the state could collect $30 billion or more over 20 years. On Jan. 12, he said to expect “millions, if not billions.”
In the press release Friday announcing his bills, Dunleavy said “We’ve been told by some that we can generate revenue in the billions over 20 years just from our forest lands.” He said his plan would create “billions of dollars in economic activity” with no taxes and big dividends.
That the governor’s employees, who have to defend their work with facts, refuse to attach any numbers to revenues over the next five years in fiscal notes is a far more reliable indicator about what to expect than the ever-changing billions claimed by the governor to justify bigger dividends and no taxes.
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