Dunleavy, not the Legislature, blocks action on a fiscal plan by failing to lead

The Legislature was never going to call a special session to deal with a fiscal plan.

That’s because 40 members would have to agree to it and we don’t have a two-thirds legislative supermajority on any contentious topic.

Nothing is going to happen unless the governor uses the power of his office to put the situation in focus. The incumbent governor has proven time and again that he is not about to do that. He won’t take the risk.

So it’s not because of the Legislature that there won’t be a special session, but because of Gov. Mike Dunleavy, who holds the only office in state government with the power to chart a course for the state, one that legislators would follow with demonstrated leadership from the executive branch.

The news coverage and editorials bemoaning legislative indecisiveness about fiscal matters have made little or no mention that it is Dunleavy’s indecisiveness that keeps us from sorting anything out about state revenue, state services, the size of the Permanent Fund Dividend and all related topics.

A narrowly-divided Legislature, which is what we’ve had for many years, is incapable of leading. The institution is set up so that a minority of legislators have the power to obstruct whatever is proposed.

But the executive branch is set up with power concentrated in a single person.

The governor can call a special session at any time. His office says he won’t call one because the Legislature hasn’t agreed on a fiscal plan. This is not a chicken and egg situation because there is no egg. Just a chicken.

The Alaska Constitution gives the governor enormous power, a structure designed by delegates to the constitutional convention who had seen the failures created by a territorial government where the governor had little power to do anything.

Dunleavy’s approach to government—with the exception of his Donna Arduin debacle—has been to wait for the Legislature to agree before he does anything that carries a political risk.

Dithering rules supreme under Dunleavy.

Let’s go back to last spring, when Dunleavy discovered that relying on the ups and down of oil prices was not a good thing and someone should do something about it.

“To simply ride oil in a do-or-die situation for the state of Alaska is folly. It’s probably not a good idea,” he said.

“There’s no doubt that you’ve probably heard discussions that we’ve been having discussions across the Legislature, across caucuses, etc., etc., on how we can, how we can get a handle on our fiscal situation so that we can stabilize our fiscals and our approach to fiscals going forward,” he said on April 27.

He said he would introduce a sales tax bill, possibly that day or the next.

“We’re drafting, I think it’s gonna be complete today, maybe tomorrow, a bill on a broad, low sales tax,” he said.

“I would start off with a low percentage sales tax, probably 1%. And the reason I say that is, it’s really about stabilizing our fiscals,” he said.

His staff later corrected this claim, saying the plan was for a 2% tax for “stabilizing our fiscals.”

(Spoiler alert: He never introduced a sales tax bill. As I wrote here last May, his alleged support for a tax contradicted the claims he made running for governor in 2018 and 2022.)

Dunleavy said he had concluded that “a broad-based solution that doesn’t gouge or take huge parts from one sector (of Alaska) or another, or penalize one sector for another is probably the most important thing we can do.”

“Don’t be surprised if there’s some quick, fast movement to be able to put together a fiscal plan, it may or may not happen in this timeframe,” he said.

“As you know Alaska is probably the only state that relies heavily, heavily, almost exclusively to come degree on commodities. You know the Permanent Fund was tapped into for partial use of government funding a few years ago, but that too is a result of commodities. So anyway you look at it, Alaska is a state that relies on commodites, commodity prices, we probably follow commodities more than any other state in the country. By what’s oil today, what’s the price, what’s the production, etc.”

“It’s a precarious way, even in good times, a precarious way to deal with fiscals.”

“We all realize that we’ve got to do something, that we all want to do something.” he said.

“This has got to be an Alaskan solution. It just can’t be one caucus or one body or the governor, etc. We all know that.”

He said it was important to get the situation fixed this year.

“So we don’t pass this on to the next group of Alaskans, the next generation, the next group of legislators, that we understand that we’re gonna have to bite the bullet to some degree, to come up with a fiscal plan that is sustainable, that is stable and that will serve Alaska well for some time.”

He said the state was closer than ever to a fiscal plan, using phrases similar to those he utters about the gas pipeline, which is also closer than ever.

“We wouldn’t be wasting your time with a press conference if we didn’t think this is something that has a really good chance of happening,” he said.

“Don’t be surprised if you hear some good news here in the next few weeks. Don’t be surprised if you hear a discussion of a special session just simply to focus on a fiscal plan,” Dunleavy predicted last spring.

Don’t be surprised that nothing is happening.

It must be said again that the lack of fiscal follow-through from Dunleavy is nothing new. When it comes to taking political risks with specific plans that not everyone will like, he has chosen to remain on the sidelines ever since the 2019 budget disaster that led to the recall movement.

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