Trump's made-up numbers and lies about the Alaska gas pipeline
President Donald Trump, never one to be constrained by facts, lied to the nation Tuesday that Japan, South Korea and other nations want to “be our partner with investments of trillions of dollars each” for an Alaska natural gas pipeline.
“It will be truly spectacular. It’s all set to go. The permitting has gotten (sic),” Trump said.
The deception is truly spectacular. The permits are in place. The money isn’t.
There are no promises from Japan, South Korea and other nations to invest trillions, billions, millions or even spare change in an Alaska natural gas pipeline that would probably need at least $50 billion to become a reality.
As the Japan Times put it, “Japanese officials have not said they have agreed to participate in the pipeline but have agreed to look into the matter, according to people familiar with the conversations.”
"We will carefully examine its technical possibilities and profitability" from the perspective of whether it would contribute to Japan's interest, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told a parliament session, the newspaper said.
A month ago Trump claimed that the Japanese had agreed to a joint venture. They have no more agreed to a joint venture than Mexico has paid for a great wall.
What’s really happening is that Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other nations know that they face a blackmail threat from Trump. If they don’t invest in the gas pipeline, he will slap tariffs on goods exported to the United States.
To avoid Trump’s tariffs various nations will promise to study a pipeline, say nice things about a pipeline, praise Trump’s wisdom in promoting a pipeline and promise to invest if a pipeline turns out to make economic sense.
The political leaders of those nations, and more importantly, the business leaders of those nations, have had plenty of time to take the full measure of Trump’s soft spots.
They will call him sir, marvel at his strength and never give him a definite no.
They know that the blackmail talk is real, but they will not call him out or challenge his grasp of economics. They know they can’t trust him, that he needs to be placated, but he won’t be around forever.
The companies in Japan, South Korea, Taiwain and other nations will be asked to put $50 billion or more on the line for 30 years or so, a decision that will not be dictated by Trump.
The chances of a pipeline getting built are actually decreased by Trump’s clumsy mob boss tactics, which add extra chaos and uncertainty. Trump is giving those nations and companies more reasons to be skeptical of the merits of the Alaska project.
With or without Trump’s blackmail, construction of a pipeline would not start anytime soon and it would be an easy matter to structure whatever agreements are eventually signed—if any are signed—to delay a final decision if better and cheaper energy alternatives are available elsewhere.
The depth of the Trump deception in his speech didn’t stop Alaska’s Trump-loving leaders—Gov. Mike Dunleavy and Sen. Dan Sullivan—from claiming that Trump mentioning the gas pipeline means the pipeline is as good as built.
“On the global stage, President Trump just committed to our LNG pipeline. ‘Beautiful Alaska, we love Alaska!’” Dunleavy said.
“President Trump’s support for AKLNG will ensure this massive LNG project is completed, and clean Alaska gas supplies our Asian allies and our Alaskan residents for decades to come!” Dunleavy said.
Dunleavy is wrong.
So is Sullivan, who claimed “the stars are aligned like never before for the @AlaskaLNG project—a decades-long energy dream for Alaska.”
Dunleavy and Sullivan are among the legions of dreamy stars-are-aligned Alaska politicians who think a gas pipeline can be talked into existence.
Trump talking about the gas pipeline doesn’t mean there will be a gas pipeline.
If the federal government and the state government agree to put enough billions into the project, there might be a gas pipeline that private companies will help finance.
But Trump, Dunleavy and Sullivan won’t say they support domestic subsidies to make this happen. They want other nations to provide the money or else.
Sullivan said after Trump’s speech that “the foreign government elements of this giant project are coming together.”
By that he meant the governments that Trump is trying to blackmail to support a gas pipeline.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, who beat out Dunleavy for that job, said in a recent Fox News appearance that Alaska is no “snow globe that you just look at,” but a place for cash and carry with great wealth ready to be extracted.
He claimed that the Trump master plan is to “sell energy to our friends and allies in the North Pacific, our traditional World War II allies.”
He should educate himself, not only on the history of our allies in World War II, but also on the history of Alaska and the competing values that he doesn’t seem to know anything about.
Your contributions help support independent analysis and political commentary by Alaska reporter and author Dermot Cole. Thank you for reading and for your support. Either click here to use PayPal or send checks to: Dermot Cole, Box 10673, Fairbanks, AK 99710-0673.\