Dunleavy keeps upping ante on carbon credits, now claims $30 billion in 20 years

It was less than two weeks ago that Gov. Mike Dunleavy said that carbon sequestration “has a very real potential of bringing revenue to the State of Alaska to the tune of millions, if not billions, of dollars.”

But 12 days have passed and Dunleavy has inflated his numbers.

Forget about measly millions. Or hundreds of millions.

Experts that he won’t name are saying we are talking billions by promising not to cut down trees on millions of acres, the painless cure to state finances.

Carbon capture is miracle money that investors the world over will give to Alaskans so they don’t have to engage in the “tired thinking” of arguing about taxes, according to Dunleavy.

“Experts in this emerging industry have informed us that we an realize revenue to the tune of billions of dollars. That’s billions of dollars per year by creating a carbon management system here in Alaska. We’ve been told by some that we can generate as much as $30 billion or more over 20 years, just from our forest lands alone,” he said in his State of the State speech Monday night. “If possible, that’s a game changer.”

It’s a big if.

Dunleavy said this is the way to pay for new services, lower the cost of living, improve the qualify of life, create wealth, and preserve the Permanent Fund Dividend. All without taxes, he says.

But Dunleavy and his staff have yet to show what lies behind the big talk. Before they do, this is imaginary money, the equivalent of bar talk.

They won’t even say if the $7 billion in “new revenue” outlined in his 10-year budget forecast is money that will grow on trees or be generated by taxes that Dunleavy opposes.

The forecast says there will be $300 million in new revenue starting next July. But Dunleavy budget director Neil Steininger says the governor has identified no proposed source for the $300 million because it’s not known how much could come from the sale of carbon offsets.

A consultant hired by the Department of Natural Resources produced a report last summer proposing three pilot forestry projects that would net the state $8 million a year. That’s significant, but it’s not $7 billion over a decade or $30 billion in 20 years.

The Legislature and all Alaskans will need a lot more from Dunleavy than “people are saying that we’ll get $30 billion over 20 years” before they will believe in his miracle plan.

For now, all of this sounds too much like the easy and inaccurate budget and revenue claims that Dunleavy has made in the past. Here is a reminder from 2021.

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